How AI will Affect the Design Industry
I don't think that AI is going to "kill design" in the next few years (as some pundits are claiming). However I do think we reached "peak designer" several years ago, and the volume of designers needed over the next 10 years will be less than the previous 10. (This is as much to do with the rise of design systems leading to the industrialisation of design, and the power shift of decision making, as it is AI)
What I don't know is whether that's 98%, 85%, 60% or some other number.
As such, these shifts are likely to adversely effect at least a portion of the workforce. Which is why I'm seeing some senior designers retire early or shift into new, non digital roles.
As the remainder of the workforce moves away from being "Figma Operators" (which is sadly where I think a lot of us have been the past few years) other pundits and claiming it's actually the start of a new golden age for design.
I don't think that's the case either. But I do think in times of change there are huge opportunities for those who embrace new technologies early. So being an AI native designer can defnitly give you an edge.
And I do think new opportunities are opening up for designers that weren't easily available before. Like designers vibe coding their way to being a startup founder, without the need for a technical co-founder, a ton of VC money and 18 months of runway.
Of course more conservative organisations (universities, charities, governments, banks, energy companies etc) that are traditionally slower at adopting new approaches (for good reasons like the precautionary principle), will still need olds school UXers and Service Designers. So the challenge will likely be in the mid ground. i.e. die hard Figma jockeys.
So there's no clean answer to where this is all heading, and anybody who tells you otherwise probably has a book, podcast, app or cohort based course to sell. Like all periods of change, there will be both winners and losers. But one thing is true. It's sure gonna be interesting (and I'm using that term very specifically in the British sense of the word).